Since beginning Global Guessing, we have noted that interdisciplinary approaches to forecasting have often borne positive results. Whether guests have come from the world of finance, academics, or biology, their ‘outside views’ have frequently contributed to their forecasting accuracy. And our guest this week, Juan Cambeiro, is no different.
In this episode 6 of The Right Side of Maybe, Clay and Andrew sat down with student, biostatistics student, and Metaculus summer analyst Juan Cambeiro to discuss his background in forecasting and work with Metaculus Pandemic. Juan placed first in Good Judgement Open's 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak forecasting challenge, and is currently in second place overall.
After discussing Juan's background in forecasting, we dove deep into three recent forecasts he made covering Mortgage Interest Rates, US COVID Deaths, and the Tokyo Summer Olympics. Two of the questions Juan got to the right side of maybe, while the third he ended up on the wrong side. We not only discussed what went well with his correct forecasts, but also explored potential sources of error with the third.
We also spoke with Juan about his information diet, how he goes about finding new sources, and the importance of forecasting for the world! Be sure to tune into this episode as you will learn a lot about good forecasting habits and how to perform well in tournaments.