What’s been going on with Israel and Palestine since last Monday? How far along in the conflict are we? Is this flare-up between these two nations any different from past years?
In this special combined episode of the Geopolitical Guessing Weekly Podcast and Metaculus Mondays, we walk you through an internally-generated set of questions about the conflict which we forecasted this week. Instead of answering a single question related to a potential ceasefire or death-tally, we decomposed the conflict into six questions that we felt give a good high-level view of where we are in the conflict, and where it may end up. And as there was no question on this topic on Metaculus this week, we determined our own resolution criteria as well!
Read the episode, get our sources and data, and find the Metaculus questions at globalguessing.com.